Monday, February 24, 2014


LIST OF UPDATES (FEBRUARY 24 THROUGH MARCH 02/2014). By Mr. Andres Agostini at The Future of Scientific Management, Today! At http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC

Brain signals from a primate directly move paralyzed limbs in another primate ‘avatar’
http://www.kurzweilai.net/brain-signals-from-a-primate-directly-move-paralyzed-limbs-in-another-primate-avatar

Rice’s carbon nanotube fibers outperform copper
http://www.kurzweilai.net/rices-carbon-nanotube-fibers-outperform-copper

Single-chip device to provide real-time ultrasonic 3D images from inside the heart and blood vessels
http://www.kurzweilai.net/single-chip-device-to-provide-real-time-ultrasonic-3d-images-from-inside-the-heart-and-blood-vessels

Researchers create powerful muscles from fishing line, sewing thread
http://www.kurzweilai.net/researchers-create-powerful-muscles-from-fishing-line-sewing-thread

The Future of World and Technology in 2030
http://vivatechnics.com/global/the-future-of-world-and-technology-in-2030/

Grandma's Experiences Leave a Mark on Your Genes
http://discovermagazine.com/2013/may/13-grandmas-experiences-leave-epigenetic-mark-on-your-genes#.UwueOYVUOHd

Q&A with Martin Whist: Designing RoboCop's Reboot
http://discovermagazine.com/2014/march/18-the-man-behind-robocops-reboot

Scientists Bring Extinct Mouth-Brooding Frog Back to Life After 30 Years
http://inhabitat.com/scientists-bring-extinct-mouth-brooding-frog-back-to-life-after-30-years/

Computer robots will outsmart humans within 15 years, Google director claims (and a giant laboratory for artificial intelligence is already planned)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2565948/Computer-robots-outsmart-humans-15-years-Google-director-claims-giant-laboratory-artificial-intelligence-planned.html

Microsoft Said to Cut Windows Price 70% to Counter Rivals
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-22/microsoft-said-to-cut-windows-price-70-to-counter-rivals.html

Are the robots about to rise? Google's new director of engineering thinks so…
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/feb/22/robots-google-ray-kurzweil-terminator-singularity-artificial-intelligence

5 Reasons Why Big Data Will Crush Big Research
http://www.forbes.com/sites/onmarketing/2013/12/03/5-reasons-why-big-data-will-crush-big-research/

Scientists ‘freeze’ light for an entire minute
http://themindunleashed.org/2014/02/scientists-freeze-light-entire-minute.html?utm_content=buffer60f8d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Facebook will lose 80% of users by 2017, say Princeton researchers
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jan/22/facebook-princeton-researchers-infectious-disease

Stanford's New Pomegranate Super Batteries Could Store 10 Times More Juice
http://inhabitat.com/stanfords-new-pomegranate-super-batteries-could-store-10-times-more-juice/

Web Analytics Trends for 2014
http://www.atomrain.com/it/it/web-analytics-trends-2014

Bitcoin is not just digital currency. It's Napster for finance.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/21/bitcoin-platform/

Did A Russian Scientist Really ‘Cure Aging’ or Is It Just a Fluke?
http://singularityhub.com/2010/09/21/did-a-russian-scientist-really-cure-aging-or-is-it-just-a-fluke-video/

Map of the World key to full immersion in geospatial data
http://fcw.com/articles/2014/02/18/map-of-the-world-key-to-full-immersion-in-geospatial-data.aspx

When Will My Car Fix Istelf Using Wireless Uploads?
http://www.21stcentech.com/fix-car-uploads/

The lie detector for your TWEETS: Scientists develop system that can tell fact from fiction in 140 characters or less
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2562919/A-lie-detector-TWEETS-Scientists-develop-tell-fact-fiction-140-characters-less.html

Don’t read War & Peace with your Google Glass…yet
http://www.publishingtechnology.com/2014/02/dont-read-war-peace-with-your-google-glassyet/

Henry Ford Gave Innovators The Wrong Message About The Value Of History
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnowrid/2014/02/21/henry-ford-gave-innovators-the-wrong-message-about-the-value-of-history/

The Office Of The 21st Century Will Be Your Self-Driving Car
http://www.fastcodesign.com/3026652/the-office-of-the-21st-century-will-be-your-self-driving-car

An Amazing Village Designed Just For People With Dementia
http://gizmodo.com/inside-an-amazing-village-designed-just-for-people-with-1526062373

Scientists Turn Off Pain Using Nothing But Light
http://gizmodo.com/scientists-turn-off-pain-using-nothing-but-light-1526906564

UA Researchers Use 3D Printing to Help Fight Cancer
http://3dprint.com/1000/ua-researchers-use-3d-printing-to-help-fight-cancer/

Concrete and Climate Change – the Greening of Infrastructure
http://www.21stcentech.com/concrete-climate-change-greening-infrastructure/

Stephen Hawking: Humanity Must Colonize Space to Survive
http://www.space.com/20657-stephen-hawking-humanity-survival-space.html

Stephen Hawking: "Why We Should Go Into Space"
http://www.nss.org/resources/library/spacepolicy/hawking.htm

Incredible Technology: How Future Space Missions May Hunt for Alien Planets
http://news.yahoo.com/incredible-technology-future-space-missions-may-hunt-alien-114833845.html

Exoplanets: New missions hunting for alien worlds
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20130829-the-new-hunt-for-alien-worlds

Five alien worlds with water detected by Hubble Space Telescope
http://www.sott.net/article/269546-Five-alien-worlds-with-water-detected-by-Hubble-Space-Telescope

Drake equation: How many alien civilizations exist?
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120821-how-many-alien-worlds-exist

DARPA Seeking Automated Decision Aids for Pilots and Battle Managers in Contested Environments
http://www.darpa.mil/NewsEvents/Releases/2014/02/21.aspx

Radiation-free cancer scans may be on the horizon
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57619153-76/radiation-free-cancer-scans-may-be-on-the-horizon/

QUOTATION(S): “...To every man there comes in his lifetime that special moment when he is figuratively tapped on the shoulder and offered a chance to do a very special thing, unique to him and fitted to his talents. What a tragedy if that moment finds him unprepared or unqualified for the work which would be his finest hour...”  

AND  

“...Change is not merely necessary to life ─ it is life...”  

AND  

“...The mind is a terrible thing to waste...”

CITATION(S):  “...If you like where events seem to be headed, you may want to take timely action to preserve their positive trajectory. If you do not like where they appear to be going, you will have to develop and implement policies to change their trajectory...”  

AND  

“...Because time is real, and the future unpredictable, the challenge of carving a path into the future calls for a different way of thinking than the old, mechanical methods of strategic planning. In order to anticipate wholly new industries like the personal computer industry, it’s not enough to make predictions based on old assumptions. You need to imagine alternative scenarios based on new assumptions. You need to imagine alternative scenarios based on new assumptions. Those new assumptions need more than new numbers...”

NEWEST, PRACTICAL PRINCIPALS (TENETS) TO SEIZE SUSTAINABLE PROFESSIONAL, MANAGERIAL AND BUSINESS SUCCESS TENTES: (24) Don’t copy Nature and Biology, don’t even copy Universe. Just copy the Omniverse.

BOOK(S): The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility... by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (ISBN-13: 978-0812973815).

N.B.: Quotations, Citations and Success Tenets are by the Futuretronium Book.




(¯`*• Global Source and/or more resources at http://goo.gl/zvSV7 │ www.Future-Observatory.blogspot.com and on LinkeIn Group's "Becoming Aware of the Futures" at http://goo.gl/8qKBbK │ @SciCzar │ Point of Contact: www.linkedin.com/in/AndresAgostini

Thursday, February 20, 2014

LIST OF UPDATES (FEBRUARY 22 THROUGH 23/2014). By Mr. Andres Agostini at The Future of Scientific Management, Today! At http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC 

A light switch for pain
http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-light-switch-for-pain

World’s most powerful terahertz laser chip
http://www.kurzweilai.net/worlds-most-powerful-terahertz-laser-chip

Are bots taking over Wikipedia?
http://www.kurzweilai.net/are-bots-taking-over-wikipedia

Gigabit Internet may be coming to 35 US cities
http://www.kurzweilai.net/gigabit-internet-may-be-coming-to-35-us-cities

Stretchable, bendable optical interconnections for body sensors and robotic skin
http://www.kurzweilai.net/stretchable-bendable-optical-interconnections-for-body-sensors-and-robotic-skin

New type of MRI ‘whole body’ scan could improve treatment of bone-marrow cancer
http://www.kurzweilai.net/new-type-of-mri-whole-body-scan-could-improve-treatment-of-bone-marrow-cancer

Intelligent alien life could be found by 2040, says SETI astronomer
http://www.kurzweilai.net/intelligent-alien-life-could-be-found-by-2040-says-seti-astronomer

Zeroing in on how Alzheimer’s-disease toxins are created
http://www.kurzweilai.net/zeroing-in-on-how-alzheimers-disease-toxins-are-created

A drug that can help wipe out reservoirs of cancer cells in bone marrow
http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-drug-that-can-help-wipe-out-reservoirs-of-cancer-cells-in-bone-marrow

Apple patents health-and-fitness monitoring headphones
http://www.kurzweilai.net/apple-patents-health-and-fitness-monitoring-headphones

Chips that listen to bacteria
http://www.kurzweilai.net/chips-that-listen-to-bacteria

Growing number of chemicals linked with brain disorders in children
http://www.kurzweilai.net/growing-number-of-chemicals-linked-with-brain-disorders-in-children

New multilayer graphene structure allows ‘ultraprecise,’ ‘ultrafast’ water filtering
http://www.kurzweilai.net/new-multilayer-graphene-structure-allows-ultraprecise-ultrafast-water-filtering

Developing World Surpasses the Developed in Growing GMO Crops
http://www.21stcentech.com/developing-world-surpasses-developed-growing-gmo-crops/

New Battery Technologies May Make EVs Ubiquitous
http://www.21stcentech.com/battery-technologies-evs-ubiquitous/

A Handheld Device That Can Diagnose Diseases And Drug Resistance In 15 Minutes
http://www.fastcoexist.com/3026100/fund-this/a-handheld-device-that-can-diagnose-diseases-and-drug-resistance-in-15-minutes

A World Without Car Crashes
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/commute/2014/02/world-without-car-crashes/8353/?sf22919200=1

The cars we’ll be driving in the world of 2050
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20131108-what-will-we-be-driving-in-2050

The city of 2050
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-23524249

11 Predictions for the World in 2030 That May Sound Outrageous Today but not in the Future.
http://www.ilookforwardto.com/2010/11/10-predictions-for-2030-that-may-sound-outrageous-today-but-will-not-in-the-future1-by-2030-learning-a-language-will-no-lo.html

U.S. Intelligence Agencies See a Different World in 2030
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-10/u-s-intelligence-agencies-see-a-different-world-in-2030.html

China Factory Data Show Slowdown Risk as Xi Limits Credit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-19/chinese-manufacturing-index-slides-to-lowest-level-in-7-months.html

Can Homemade Goods Become The Global Brands Of Tomorrow?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnowrid/2014/02/19/can-homemade-goods-become-the-global-brands-of-tomorrow/

America’s Fusion Race With China Is Heating Up, So Why Is Washington Going Cold?
http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2014/02/americas-fusion-race-china-heating-so-why-washington-going-cold/78848/

Why Wearable Tech Will Be as Big as the Smartphone
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2013/12/wearable-computers/

This Ring Scans Text And Reads It Aloud For Visually Impaired People
http://gizmodo.com/this-ring-scans-text-and-reads-it-aloud-for-visually-im-1525373479?utm_campaign=socialflow_gizmodo_twitter&utm_source=gizmodo_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

Smart Shoes Could Help Runners Hit Their Stride
http://www.livescience.com/41844-smart-running-shoes-improve-runners-gait.html

‘We need the iPhone of guns’: Will smart guns transform the gun industry?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/we-need-the-iphone-of-guns-will-smart-guns-transform-the-gun-industry/2014/02/17/6ebe76da-8f58-11e3-b227-12a45d109e03_story.html

How The Knowledge Economy Is Redefining Work
http://www.fastcompany.com/3026566/leadership-now/how-the-knowledge-economy-is-redefining-work

Bitcoin Exchange Prices Plummet as Investors Brace for Bankruptcy
http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2014/02/mtgox-2/

Google prepares 34-city push for ultra-fast Fiber service
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/us-google-fiber-idUSBREA1I1ZT20140219

Some predict computers will produce a jobless future. Here’s why they’re wrong.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/02/18/some-predict-computers-will-produce-a-jobless-future-heres-why-theyre-wrong/

Quantum Microscope May Be Able to See Inside Living Cells
http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/wiredscience/2014/02/Layout.jpeg

Looking ahead: what will the world be like in 2064?
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/world-issues/2014/01/06/397615/Looking-ahead.htm

QUOTATION(S):   “...Now, for the first time, we are observing the brain at work in a global manner with such clarity that we should be able to discover the overall programs behind its magnificent powers...”

AND

“...When Queen Victoria was in her prime, an Englishman, Charles Darwin, discovered a fundamental truth that shook mankind so severely that it remains today a matter of extreme distress and massive denial. Darwin realized that life on our planet is not the recent and fixed product of deity-mediated special creation, but has been constantly changing over a long span of time … The paleontologist who followed Darwin have taught us that time has no respect for species. Whole dynasties of life have been swept away and replaced with new ones. More than 65 million years ago, the world was filled with swift, deadly meat-eaters, including huge tyrannosaurs stalking elephant-sized horned dinosaurs and duck-billed herbivores. Flying pterosaurs were as big and heavy as sailplanes. Small, graceful, predaceous dinosaurs had binocular vision, big brains, and grasping hands. After 170 million years of successful evolution, they achieved the height of variation and power. Resplendent and numerous on the fertile Cretaceous plains, how could it be that within a few years they all would be gone forever? This chilling story suggests a ticking clock for humanity, as well; dare we think of our own extinction? There is ticking clock for humanity, and it may be mere seconds before midnight. TOMORROW IS UPON US, AND WHAT IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN IN THE NEW DAY IS FAR, FAR STRANGER THAN MOST PEOPLE DARE TO THINK … Even Darwin did not realize how right he was, or how far evolution will take us. We should not fault Darwin for his lack of vision. Darwin lived in a time when the modern scientific revolution was just beginning. It was also a time of steam engines, gas lamps, and phrenology. Science, in our late 20th century sense, was still a few years away. Yet even today, few nonscientists have more than an inkling of how life evolved or how technologies such as the automobile, the light switch, or the airplane actually work … WE LIVE IN A HIGH-TECHNOLOGY WORLD, WITH LITTLE APPRECIATION FOR HOW THINGS GOT THE WAY THEY ARE...”

AND  

“...Man, incurable futurist, is the only traditionalist animal...”  

AND

“...A person’s world equates to the size his (her) own vocabulary...”

CITATION(S):  “...Wealth is concentrated and portable. MIT faculty and alumni produce as much wealth as all but Twenty-Two Countries In The World...”

AND  

“... [The human being] experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest — a kind of optical delusion of our consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest to us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty...”  

AND

“...Yet the opportunities and challenges do not pause. The forces of change are in fact accelerating as technology, communications, and mobility link us in a blurring and buzzing globalizing world....  The image of this future became clearer when we and 40 executives and thought leaders closely examined five specific technology areas and explored their implications for society, business, and government.  We examined biotechnology, cyber-technology, nanotechnology, ubiquitous sensing, and wild cards from science and technology.  We asked the thought leaders to apply their projections in five crosscutting areas to identify the key technology convergences that would most affect or disrupt society in 2025: economy and wealth, energy and the environment, health and demographics, infrastructure, and governance  ....  We learned that the technologies were changing in ways that made traditional distinctions between disciplines and areas of science decreasingly relevant.  Biotechnologists regularly describe nano-scale developments.  Nanotechnologists apply insights from genome sequencing. Research is spread, enhanced, and stolen with cyber tools. Research will lead to carbon-free or carbon-neutral technologies that disrupt industries and policies. The blurring of boundaries between sciences are creating convergences.  Breakthroughs across disciplines are stimulating accelerating insights and applications...”

AND  

“...Knowledge is being created at such a rate that much of what we know will soon be obsolete  ....  The technological developments maturing between now and 2025 and the innovative ways they may be applied reflect an acceleration and shift that can seem both promising and challenging to decision makers. In the Industrial Age, developments in steam power, combustion engines, automobiles, aerospace, and telephony seemed slow to mature – their development and spread required large industrial infrastructures.  In the Information Age, developments in bio, nano, cyber, and sensors are possible with a smaller and more differentiated infrastructure, and they are occurring simultaneously around the globe.  Global information networks are increasing the pace of this technological innovation. This deeper, more widely spread development of knowledge is different from our recent past and portends further changes .... The convergences of bio, nano, cyber, sensors and wild card technologies are causing even greater acceleration of change.  But at the same time, knowledge is being created at such a rate that much of what we know about these technologies and their application rapidly becomes obsolete as it is overtaken by newer discoveries. Our institutions will be challenged to respond to the combination of these technological changes and the many other drivers of change simultaneously.  We expect many systems and institutions to be desynchronized by these changes and efforts to resynchronize them will add to the sense of disruption that many people feel  ....  Many thought leaders we worked with in this effort are highly optimistic.  Nearly all who contributed to these findings see technological developments as promising, and as stimuli for new opportunities. At the same time, some cautioned about vulnerabilities and called for leadership and action to address these vulnerabilities before we feel their impact. This report serves as one input to decision makers who can aid us in adapting with the changes and creating our future...”

AND  

“... In the mid-1980s a study by Shell suggested that the average corporate survival rate for large company was about half as long as that of a human being. Since then the pressures on firms have increased enormously from all directions ─ with the inevitable result that business life expectancy is reduced still further. Many studies look at the changing composition of key indices and draw attention to the demise of what were often major firms and in their time key innovators. For example, Foster and Kaplan point out that of the 500 companies originally making up the Standard & Poor 500 list in 1957, only 74 remained on the list through to 1977. Of the top 12 companies which make up the Dow Jones Index in 1900 only one ─ General Electric ─ survives today. Even apparently robust giants like IBM, GM or Kodak can suddenly display worrying sings of mortality, whilst for small firms the picture is often considerably worse since they lack the protection of a large resource base  ...  Some firms have had to change dramatically to stay in business. For example, a company founded in the early nineteenth century, which had Wellington boots and toilet paper amongst its product range, is now one of the largest and most successful in the world of telecommunications business. Nokia began life as a lumber company, making the equipment and supplies needed to cut down forests in Finland. It moved through into paper and from there into the ‘paperless office’ world of IT ─ and from there into mobile telephones  ...  Another mobile phone player ─ Vodafone Airtouch ─ grew to its huge size by merging with a firm called Mannesmann which, since its birth in 1870s, has been more commonly associated with the invention and production of steel tubes! TUI owns Thomsom (the travel group) in the UK, and is the largest European travel and tourism services company. Its origins, however, lie in the mines of old Prussia where it was established as a public sector state lead mining and smelting company!...”

NEWEST, PRACTICAL PRINCIPALS (TENETS) TO SEIZE SUSTAINABLE PROFESSIONAL, MANAGERIAL AND BUSINESS SUCCESS TENTES:  (21) Step outside the boundaries of the framework’s system when seeking a problem’s solution. (22) Within zillion tiny bets, raise the ante and capture the documented learning through frenzy execution. (23) “...Moonshine...” and “...Skunks-work...” and “...Re-Imagineer...” it all, holding in your mind the motion-picture image that, regardless of the relevance of “...inputs...” and “...outputs,...”, entails that the highest relevance is within the sophistication within the THROUGHPUT.

BOOK(S): What Matters Now: How to Win in a World of Relentless Change, Ferocious Competition, and Unstoppable Innovation... by Gary Hamel. ISBN-13: 978-1118120828.

N.B.: Quotations, Citations and Success Tenets are by the Futuretronium Book.

Regards,

Mr. Andres Agostini
Risk-Management Futurist and Success Consultant
http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC



(¯`*• Global Source and/or more resources at http://goo.gl/zvSV7 │ www.Future-Observatory.blogspot.com and on LinkeIn Group's "Becoming Aware of the Futures" at http://goo.gl/8qKBbK │ @SciCzar │ Point of Contact: www.linkedin.com/in/AndresAgostini

Monday, February 17, 2014

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LIST OF UPDATES (FEBRUARY 17 THROUGH 21/2014). By Mr. Andres Agostini at The Future of Scientific Management, Today! At http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC

Wearable glasses help surgeons view cancer​​​​​​​​ cells in real time
http://www.kurzweilai.net/wearable-glasses-help-surgeons-view-cancer-cells-in-real-time

Miniaturized hearing aids that will fit into the ear canal
http://www.kurzweilai.net/miniaturized-hearing-aids-that-will-fit-into-the-ear-canal

DHS, Purdue Develop Social Media Analysis Tool to Monitor Crime
http://www.executivegov.com/2014/02/dhs-purdue-develop-social-media-analysis-tool-to-monitor-crime/#sthash.gJM1msiI.dpuf

The Global Search for Education: What Israel Did
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/c-m-rubin/the-global-search-for-edu_b_4797810.html

Virgin America Wants To Turn Boring Plane Flights Into Awesome Networking Sessions
http://www.businessinsider.com/category/virgin-america

The World’s Most Powerful 3-D Laser Imager
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/524166/the-worlds-most-powerful-3-d-laser-imager/

Scientists Create Virtual Brain to Study Neurological Disorders
http://psychcentral.com/news/2014/02/16/scientists-create-a-virtual-brain-to-study-neurological-disorders/65956.html

Scientists to create frozen zoos on other planets?
http://innovation.uk.msn.com/planet/scientists-to-create-frozen-zoos-on-other-planets

Welcome to the Future of Transportation
http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/blog/welcome-future-transportation

The Power of Unintentional Collaboration
http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-power-of-unintentional-collaboration/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sm-direct

'Hand of God' Spotted by NASA Space Telescope (Photo)
http://www.space.com/24225-hand-of-god-photo-nasa-telescope.html?cmpid=514630_20140217_18570724

Education is the key to smart security preparation
http://www.techradar.com/news/internet/education-is-the-key-to-smart-security-preparation-1221637

NASA Finds Clues That There's Flowing Water On Mars
http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2014/02/10/nasa-finds-clues-that-theres-flowing-water-on-mars/

The World’s Most Powerful 3-D Laser Imager
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/524166/the-worlds-most-powerful-3-d-laser-imager/

Explore 10 trends that offer CIOs the opportunity to shape tomorrow and to transform “business as usual.”
http://dupress.com/articles/2014-tech-trends-introduction/?id=gx:2sm:3li:dup563:cons:tt14:awa:021414?id=gx:2sm:3li:dup563:cons:tt14:awa:021414

Cameras That Can See Through Walls!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLtzilM0epg

Aquaponics: The Answer to California's Drought?
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/aquaponics-the-answer-to-california-s-drought-hv6OppkgRdm2pEvmG3U_Dw.html

Why the Tiny Home Movement May Not be So Tiny
http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2014/02/why-the-tiny-home-movement-may-not-be-so-tiny/

A termite-inspired robot construction team
http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-termite-inspired-robot-construction-team

Helping robots collaborate
http://www.kurzweilai.net/herding-robots

Robots with insect brains
http://www.kurzweilai.net/robots-with-insect-brains

Four new galaxy clusters discovered some 10 billion light years from Earth
http://www.kurzweilai.net/four-new-galaxy-clusters-discovered-some-10-billion-light-years-from-earth

What makes us human? Unique brain area linked to higher cognitive powers
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140205212015.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Ftop_news%2Ftop_science+%28ScienceDaily%3A+Top+Science+News%29

5 (Relatively Simple) Steps To B2B Social Media Marketing Success
http://www.fastcompany.com/3026450/dialed/5-relativity-simple-steps-to-b2b-social-media-marketing-success?partner=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fastcompany%2Fheadlines+%28Fast+Company%29

Q&A: What studying networks can tell us about the world and ourselves
http://news.yale.edu/2014/02/11/qa-what-studying-networks-can-tell-us-about-world-and-ourselves

Iran proposes joint naval exercise with Russia. Show of strength as interim nuclear deal takes effect
http://kleinonline.wnd.com/2014/02/14/iran-proposes-joint-naval-exercise-with-russia-meant-to-check-u-s-warships-in-region/#sthash.N154fUpi.dpuf

Chronic Pain Common in Teens with Mental Health Problems
http://americannewsreport.com/nationalpainreport/chronic-pain-common-teens-mental-health-problems-8823025.html

Is truth stranger than fiction? Yes, especially for science fiction
http://phys.org/news/2014-02-truth-stranger-fiction-science.html

The Future of Work by 2020
http://www.elsua.net/2013/05/22/the-future-of-work-by-2020/

Personalized medicine by 2020 and other futuristic healthcare predictions (infographic)
http://medcitynews.com/2012/08/personalized-medicine-by-2020-this-and-other-predictions-on-the-future-of-healthcare-infographic/#ixzz2tLx3xLZP

NASA Invites Private Companies To The Moon
http://www.popsci.com/article/science/nasa-invites-private-companies-moon

How The Internet Of Things Is More Like The Industrial Revolution Than The Digital Revolution
http://www.forbes.com/sites/oreillymedia/2014/02/10/more-1876-than-1995/

Atheer Glasses, the Best Way to Experience the Future
http://arabnet.me/atheer-glasses-best-way-experience-future/

Next-Gen Nanotech Breath Sensor Could Change How We Monitor Health
http://www.medgadget.com/2013/10/hold-next-gen-nanotech-sensor-could-change-the-way-we-monitor-health.html

Will your clothing spy on you?
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/13/will-your-clothing-spy-on-you/?iid=SF_F_River&utm_content=bufferba667&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Two Female VCs Launch Silicon Valley Firm To Show Diversity Equals Profit
http://www.fastcoexist.com/3026479/two-female-vcs-launch-silicon-valley-firm-to-show-diversity-equals-profit

How to Adjust to the Silver-Tsunami of Working Baby Boomers?
http://synecticsworld.com/how-to-adjust-to-the-silver-tsunami-of-working-baby-boomers/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_content=3977617#

Colonialism's Enduring Dividends. Why European Companies Have an Advantage in Emerging Markets
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140776/bhaskar-chakravorti-jianwei-dong-kate-fedosova/colonialisms-enduring-dividends

Ad Infinitum. ‘Our Mathematical Universe,’ by Max Tegmark.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/16/books/review/our-mathematical-universe-by-max-tegmark.html?_r=0

Yahoo’s Mayer Views 2014 as Tech ‘Tipping Point’
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/22/yahoos-mayer-2014-tipping-point-for-technology/

Social platform for sharing cyberthreat intell goes live
http://gcn.com/articles/2014/02/11/activetrust.aspx

QUOTATION(S): “...The forces shaping your future are digital [and mathematical], and you need to understand them...” AND “...You can’t understand the knot without understanding the strands, but in the future, the strands need not remain tied up in the same way as they are today...” AND “...ALL CHILDREN ARE BORN GENIUSES; 9,999 OUT OF EVERY 10,000 ARE SWIFTLY, INADVERTENTLY DEGENIUNIZED BY GROWNUPS...” AND “...Supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by about 2020 .... We appear to be programmed with the idea that there are 'things' outside of our self, and some are conscious, and some are not .... We are beginning to see intimations of this in the implantation of computer devices into the human body...” AND “...People are always [and wrongfully] assuming that everything that is going to be invented must have been invented already. But it hasn’t...”

CITATION(S): “...We have the Internet that we have today because the Internet of yesterday did not focus on the today of yesterday...” AND “...Legal scholars can debate whether copyright law mandates a future of ‘authorized use only’ for digital information. The answer may not matter much, because that future is coming to pass through the technologies of digital rights management and trusted systems...” AND “...Can we envision the future transcontinental flights, where books, music, images, and videos are automatically extracted, sampled, mixed, and remixed; fed into massive automated reasoning engines; assimilated into the core software of every personal computer and every cell phone ─ and thousands of other things for which the words don’t even exist yet?...” AND “...Governments of the Industrial World, your weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind. On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. You have no so sovereignty where we gather .... We are creating a world that all may enter without privilege or prejudice accorded by race, economic power, military force, or station of birth. We are creating a world where anyone, anywhere may express his or her beliefs, no matter how singular, without fear of being coerced into silence or conformity … In our world, all the sentiments and expressions of humanity, from debasing to the angelic, are parts of a seamless whole, the global conversation of bits .... [Y]ou are trying to ward off the virus of liberty by erecting guard posts at the frontiers of Cyberspace...”

NEWEST, PRACTICAL PRINCIPALS (TENETS) TO SEIZE SUSTAINABLE PROFESSIONAL, MANAGERIAL AND BUSINESS SUCCESS TENTES: (18) Foster momentum by creating virtuous cycles that build credibility and by avoiding getting caught in vicious cycles that harm credibility. (19) Institute coalitions that translate into swifter organizational adjustments to the inevitable streams of change in personnel and environment.

BOOK(S): A Whole New Mind: Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future by Daniel H. Pink (ISBN-13: 978-1594481710).

N.B.: Quotations, Citations and Success Tenets are by the Futuretronium Book.

Regards,

Mr. Andres Agostini
Risk-Management Futurist
and Success Consultant
http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC



(¯`*• Global Source and/or more resources at http://goo.gl/zvSV7 │ www.Future-Observatory.blogspot.com and on LinkeIn Group's "Becoming Aware of the Futures" at http://goo.gl/8qKBbK │ @SciCzar │ Point of Contact: www.linkedin.com/in/AndresAgostini
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The Future of Omniscient Scenario-Planning Methodology, Today! By Mr. Andres Agostini

This is a personal yet summarized and copyrighted P.O.V. that is professional, thorough and complete. This independent exploration is based on 30 years of stern practical experience and expertise.

When I was 25 I was fully introduced and indoctrinated on worldwide Royal Dutch Shell's scenario-planning methodology by Shell's nationalized company Maraven. That introduction and indoctrination came through the kind deeds and executive decision of and by Maraven President, Dr. Carlos Castillo and the high-ranking strategic planners under his command.

The view and application of scenario-planning methodology by Maraven, as well as the several-weeks training to me, also included all theoretical and practical quality-assurance and continuous-improvement prescriptions by: Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Dr. Joseph Juran, Mr. Bill Conway, U.S. Navy, Kaisen and Hitachi.

With serious quality assurance and continuous improvement, one must exercise (like in scenario-planning contexts) great foresight and learning in advance in order to eliminate forthcoming "defects" or "flaws," leaving leeway to countermeasure unknonwables.

All of my Maraven training included all of the preceding. Maraven was a created and an acculturated full-scope petroleum company by Shell and then under the absolute tutelage and management control of state-owned PDVSA (Citgo's parent company).

Maraven was affluently thriving in worldwide markets while applying scenario-planning methodology as it was exactly conceived, designed and executed by Pierre Wack (an unconventional French oil executive who was the first to develop the use of scenario planning in the private sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the 1970s.)

Wack is the father of scenario planning in the private sector. For more details on this noted Guru, go to the Economist at http://www.economist.com/node/12000502 .

Wack's public writings are meager and kept under the intellectual ownership of Shell. Wack's methodological heir was Honorable Mr. Peter Schwartz, a previous Shell executive, the former Chairman of Global Business Network (www.gbn.com) and author of the groundbreaking book on scenario planning: "...The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World..." (ISBN-13: 978-1863160995).

Wack and Schwartz are the greatest proponents of 3-scenario analysis. In my case, I institute "...hazard scenario planning..." and the number of plausible and implausible outputted thought-through "outlooks" (scenarios) are only limited by the designated budget by the Client.

I am going to explain what "ouput" means in Systems Engineering. You have the Systems Transformational "Box," throughputting (marshaling) from "known inputs" into "desirable outputs" (from sustainable successful outcomes into fiscally sound and continuous growth).

BUT, FOR A LONG TIME UNTIL YEAR 1999, I HAD A REVOLVING QUESTION: WHERE DOES THE EXACT AND MOST UNDERLYING GENESIS OF SCENARIO PLANNING REALLY COME FROM? EXACTLY, WHAT IS THE OUTRIGHT ORIGIN? When I study contemporary authors I always wonder if I can find the actual "root" philosopher, scientist and thought leader that first and originally brought about an idea, notion, maxim, theory, approach or breakthrough.

For instance, former U.S. Secretary of State and conspicuous American self-help author Napoleon Hill got his first name and success tenets after and from (respectively) Napoleon Bonaparte. I research the works by the original ones first and then I might check out the works by the contemporary versions afterward.

COMING BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT MATTER, I finally founded out that scenario planning was developed by the U.S. during the 1950's and while great existential challenges were threatening the country's National Security doctrine as a direct result of the Cold War (1947–1991).

In consequence, I knew the exact and primordial, in-all-truth root and understood that DoD (1789 - present), DARPA (1958 - present), NASA (1958 - present) and Military-Industrial Complex (1961 - present) and other agencies and private contractors (including Skunkworks ones) were the founding fathers of advanced scenario-planning methodology.

Many scientists and engineers worked extremely hard at it, including NASA's Dr. Wernher von Braun[1] and the plethora of elitist scientists collaborating with him. Elites can sometimes serve the public interest at large handsomely. But the gravest inflection point came by the Sputnik Crisis (also known as the "Sputnik Moment," that is: a large Geo-strategic surprise). Many companies go under because of the strategic surprises inflicted by them either by smarter competitors or novel technologies.

From this point onward, one finds the salient research by RAND Corporation's polymath futurist Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983). To give you an idea on Kahn's intellectual mind-set style, please check these clear-eyed assertions by him: “...I'm against ignorance...I am against the whole cliché of the moment...I'm against fashionable thinking...I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking...” [2] .

Comparatively and interestingly enough, the United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld argued, "...Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know..."

But many years before the "... unknown unknowns..." conjecture by Rumsfeld, Khan was the ultimate pioneer in superseding "...the unthinkable..." This by Khan is one of the pillars of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management and The Future of Scientific Management, Today!

He did offer a theoretical body and practical and downright mode of approaching its theory. The most important global institutions of the world, into profit or not, are into stern "the unthinkable" discerning, beginning with those of us into advanced beyond-insurance risk management and strategy.

Let's explore Khan's background now. Wikipedia's citation [3] on "...the unthinkable..." polymath futurist is extremely educational. An excerpt of this citation indicates:

"...Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a founder of the Hudson Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally come to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove....Kahn's major contributions were the several strategies he developed during the Cold War to contemplate 'the unthinkable' – namely, nuclear warfare – by using applications of game theory. ...Most notably, KAHN IS OFTEN CITED AS THE FATHER OF SCENARIO PLANNING..."
CONCLUSIONS:

Given all of the prior, I understand and summon the following:

1.- Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence, government agencies and entities, NGOs, business enterprises and supranationals. Nonetheless, scenario planning as per Wack and Khan is breathtaking but in itself does not suffice in contemporary times.

2.- Along with item “1.-” before, there is also the concomitant application of 2.1.- Systems Theory, 2.2.- Game Theory, 2.3.- Wargaming Theory and 2.4.- Many other modes of practical strategic thinking and strategic execution. By example, Game Theory and Wargaming Theory ─ both under the Systems Thinking Approach ─ are extremely well addressed by Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, PhD.

You may wish to explored his book: “The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future” (ISBN-13: 978-0812979770).

To me Napoleon Bonaparte is the greeters Systems Thinker ever beyond any epic military campaign. If you are hesitant about it, please ask systems engineers, physicists, other scholars and managers, as well as prominent historians. 80% of the teaching by Bonaparte are taught in all U.S. Military Academies. In my case and as per my own experience, NASA-beloved Leonado Da Vinci's publications can be an over-learning device for the radiant prepared-mind crafting lucid scenarios irradiantly.

3.- With “1.-” and “2.-” in place, there is also the application of Compound Forecasting without the ruling out of the vast computing calculation and transformation from narrative data into numerical data.

I have many professional reasons to state that I use 70% of Qualitative Analytics and 30% of Quantitative Analytics. Algorithms don't outsmart the biological brain yet. By year 2000, before the Dawn of Strong Big Data, the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown and me were experimenting with seizing an optimal computerized reading pertaining to the “success-likelihood ratio” of a major business initiative to be jointly launched by our respective interests. This was another way of “futuring” that resulted exceedingly interesting and educational back then.

4.- In addition to all posited in “1.-”, “2.-” and “3.-” above, it is, too, highly advisable the concurrent implementation of other practical methodologies of and by 4.1.- Futures Studies and 4.2.- Foresight Research. There are several proprietary approaches that cannot be disclosed here.

5.- All numbered items above and in a rogue yet subtle search and recursive exploration of the totality of the whole (by holistic means), everything there must be seamlessly coalesced, integrated and instituted in accordance with Systems Thinking with the Systemic and Systematic Applied Omniscience Perspective as it is understood both by Applied Engineers and Physicists. Said “Omniscience” as it is chiefly understood by “Exact Science” Scientists.

All stakeholders always institute all the approaches hereby in order to avoid disruption potentials. One of the world's best and more authoritative examples is NASA and everything by it. For decades, NASA has been developing beyond-insurance risk management technologies and services for its own initiatives, projects and missions, as well as for august global corporations.

In the Summer of 2013, an American group of oil-and-gas corporations that operate globally asked NASA for a “...Space-Age Risk Management...” service to them as it was made official in a NASA own Press Release at http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/releases/2013/J13-014.html

Kindly please remember that Risk Management is neither taking calculated risks in Wall Streets (or any stock market), nor managing “challenges” by insurance and reinsurance companies only. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management is, in all actuality, OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT PER SE to greatly exploit upsides and downsides before they happen.

Ergo, Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a proprietary methodology to practically solved complicated and complex problems by the targeted organization. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management or “...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” is, by far and by way of example, much more than Beyond-"...Sarbanes–Oxley Act..." Risk Management.

You see, “reinsurance” is a fancy term that equates to amount sums of “...insurance purchased by and for insurance companies...” If a tiny or gargantuan insurance company instituted Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, said insurance company would not need at all to buy any reinsurance “protection” or so-called “cover.”

6.- There are many leading government agencies and entities, NGOs, global corporations and supranationals that, since many years now, apply everything above in parallel (simultaneously, cohesively and congruently). This is, for instance, under universal application by agencies and business enterprises into Aerospace and Defense.

Institutions ─ that I have worked with that make forceful efforts towards avant-garde “scenario planing” and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management ─ encompass: Toyota, Mitsubishi, World Bank, Shell, Statoil, Total, Exxon, Mobil, PDVSA/Citgo, GE, GMAC, TNT Express, GTE, Amoco, BP, Abbot Laboratories, World Health Organization, Ernst Young Consulting, SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation), Pak Mail, Wilpro Energy Services, Phillips Petroleum Company, Dupont, Conoco, ENI (Italy’s petroleum state-owned firm), Chevron, and LDG Management (HCC Benefits).

7.- MANY PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS AND OTHER SCIENTISTS AND ENTREPRENEURS HAVE FORMIDABLE NOTIONS AND FORESIGHTED IDEAS BUT GRAVELY LACK THE DIRECT EXPERIENCE AND EMPIRIC YET PROVEN WOMB-TO-TOMB METHODS IN PRAGMATICALLY MANAGING A DANGEROUS CORPORATE THEATER OF OPERATIONS (FRAMEWORK).

To find out more about relentless Scenario-Planning Methodology and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, you are most welcome to consider the (republished by the Lifeboat Foundation and Forward Metrics) interview at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC .

REFERENCES:
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun
[2] http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/h/herman_kahn.html
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn

Regards,

Mr. Andres Agostini
Risk-Management Futurist
and Success Consultant


The Future of Omniscient Scenario-Planning Methodology, Today! By Mr. Andres Agostini

This is a personal yet summarized and copyrighted P.O.V. that is professional, thorough and complete. This independent exploration is based on 30 years of stern practical experience and expertise.

When I was 25 I was fully introduced and indoctrinated on worldwide Royal Dutch Shell's scenario-planning methodology by Shell's nationalized company Maraven. That introduction and indoctrination came through the kind deeds and executive decision of and by Maraven President, Dr. Carlos Castillo and the high-ranking strategic planners under his command.

The view and application of scenario-planning methodology by Maraven, as well as the several-weeks training to me, also included all theoretical and practical quality-assurance and continuous-improvement prescriptions by: Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Dr. Joseph Juran, Mr. Bill Conway, U.S. Navy, Kaisen and Hitachi.

With serious quality assurance and continuous improvement, one must exercise (like in scenario-planning contexts) great foresight and learning in advance in order to eliminate forthcoming "defects" or "flaws," leaving leeway to countermeasure unknonwables.

All of my Maraven training included all of the preceding. Maraven was a created and an acculturated full-scope petroleum company by Shell and then under the absolute tutelage and management control of state-owned PDVSA (Citgo's parent company).

Maraven was affluently thriving in worldwide markets while applying scenario-planning methodology as it was exactly conceived, designed and executed by Pierre Wack (an unconventional French oil executive who was the first to develop the use of scenario planning in the private sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the 1970s.)

Wack is the father of scenario planning in the private sector. For more details on this noted Guru, go to the Economist at http://www.economist.com/node/12000502 .

Wack's public writings are meager and kept under the intellectual ownership of Shell. Wack's methodological heir was Honorable Mr. Peter Schwartz, a previous Shell executive, the former Chairman of Global Business Network (www.gbn.com) and author of the groundbreaking book on scenario planning: "...The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World..." (ISBN-13: 978-1863160995).

Wack and Schwartz are the greatest proponents of 3-scenario analysis. In my case, I institute "...hazard scenario planning..." and the number of plausible and implausible outputted thought-through "outlooks" (scenarios) are only limited by the designated budget by the Client.

I am going to explain what "ouput" means in Systems Engineering. You have the Systems Transformational "Box," throughputting (marshaling) from "known inputs" into "desirable outputs" (from sustainable successful outcomes into fiscally sound and continuous growth).

BUT, FOR A LONG TIME UNTIL YEAR 1999, I HAD A REVOLVING QUESTION: WHERE DOES THE EXACT AND MOST UNDERLYING GENESIS OF SCENARIO PLANNING REALLY COME FROM? EXACTLY, WHAT IS THE OUTRIGHT ORIGIN? When I study contemporary authors I always wonder if I can find the actual "root" philosopher, scientist and thought leader that first and originally brought about an idea, notion, maxim, theory, approach or breakthrough.

For instance, former U.S. Secretary of State and conspicuous American self-help author Napoleon Hill got his first name and success tenets after and from (respectively) Napoleon Bonaparte. I research the works by the original ones first and then I might check out the works by the contemporary versions afterward.

COMING BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT MATTER, I finally founded out that scenario planning was developed by the U.S. during the 1950's and while great existential challenges were threatening the country's National Security doctrine as a direct result of the Cold War (1947–1991).

In consequence, I knew the exact and primordial, in-all-truth root and understood that DoD (1789 - present), DARPA (1958 - present), NASA (1958 - present) and Military-Industrial Complex (1961 - present) and other agencies and private contractors (including Skunkworks ones) were the founding fathers of advanced scenario-planning methodology.

Many scientists and engineers worked extremely hard at it, including NASA's Dr. Wernher von Braun[1] and the plethora of elitist scientists collaborating with him. Elites can sometimes serve the public interest at large handsomely. But the gravest inflection point came by the Sputnik Crisis (also known as the "Sputnik Moment," that is: a large Geo-strategic surprise). Many companies go under because of the strategic surprises inflicted by them either by smarter competitors or novel technologies.

From this point onward, one finds the salient research by RAND Corporation's polymath futurist Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983). To give you an idea on Kahn's intellectual mind-set style, please check these clear-eyed assertions by him: “...I'm against ignorance...I am against the whole cliché of the moment...I'm against fashionable thinking...I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking...” [2] .

Comparatively and interestingly enough, the United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld argued, "...Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know..."

But many years before the "... unknown unknowns..." conjecture by Rumsfeld, Khan was the ultimate pioneer in superseding "...the unthinkable..." This by Khan is one of the pillars of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management and The Future of Scientific Management, Today!

He did offer a theoretical body and practical and downright mode of approaching its theory. The most important global institutions of the world, into profit or not, are into stern "the unthinkable" discerning, beginning with those of us into advanced beyond-insurance risk management and strategy.

Let's explore Khan's background now. Wikipedia's citation [3] on "...the unthinkable..." polymath futurist is extremely educational. An excerpt of this citation indicates:

"...Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a founder of the Hudson Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally come to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove....Kahn's major contributions were the several strategies he developed during the Cold War to contemplate 'the unthinkable' – namely, nuclear warfare – by using applications of game theory. ...Most notably, KAHN IS OFTEN CITED AS THE FATHER OF SCENARIO PLANNING..."
CONCLUSIONS:

Given all of the prior, I understand and summon the following:

1.- Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence, government agencies and entities, NGOs, business enterprises and supranationals. Nonetheless, scenario planning as per Wack and Khan is breathtaking but in itself does not suffice in contemporary times.

2.- Along with item “1.-” before, there is also the concomitant application of 2.1.- Systems Theory, 2.2.- Game Theory, 2.3.- Wargaming Theory and 2.4.- Many other modes of practical strategic thinking and strategic execution. By example, Game Theory and Wargaming Theory ─ both under the Systems Thinking Approach ─ are extremely well addressed by Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, PhD.

You may wish to explored his book: “The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future” (ISBN-13: 978-0812979770).

To me Napoleon Bonaparte is the greeters Systems Thinker ever beyond any epic military campaign. If you are hesitant about it, please ask systems engineers, physicists, other scholars and managers, as well as prominent historians. 80% of the teaching by Bonaparte are taught in all U.S. Military Academies. In my case and as per my own experience, NASA-beloved Leonado Da Vinci's publications can be an over-learning device for the radiant prepared-mind crafting lucid scenarios irradiantly.

3.- With “1.-” and “2.-” in place, there is also the application of Compound Forecasting without the ruling out of the vast computing calculation and transformation from narrative data into numerical data.

I have many professional reasons to state that I use 70% of Qualitative Analytics and 30% of Quantitative Analytics. Algorithms don't outsmart the biological brain yet. By year 2000, before the Dawn of Strong Big Data, the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown and me were experimenting with seizing an optimal computerized reading pertaining to the “success-likelihood ratio” of a major business initiative to be jointly launched by our respective interests. This was another way of “futuring” that resulted exceedingly interesting and educational back then.

4.- In addition to all posited in “1.-”, “2.-” and “3.-” above, it is, too, highly advisable the concurrent implementation of other practical methodologies of and by 4.1.- Futures Studies and 4.2.- Foresight Research. There are several proprietary approaches that cannot be disclosed here.

5.- All numbered items above and in a rogue yet subtle search and recursive exploration of the totality of the whole (by holistic means), everything there must be seamlessly coalesced, integrated and instituted in accordance with Systems Thinking with the Systemic and Systematic Applied Omniscience Perspective as it is understood both by Applied Engineers and Physicists. Said “Omniscience” as it is chiefly understood by “Exact Science” Scientists.

All stakeholders always institute all the approaches hereby in order to avoid disruption potentials. One of the world's best and more authoritative examples is NASA and everything by it. For decades, NASA has been developing beyond-insurance risk management technologies and services for its own initiatives, projects and missions, as well as for august global corporations.

In the Summer of 2013, an American group of oil-and-gas corporations that operate globally asked NASA for a “...Space-Age Risk Management...” service to them as it was made official in a NASA own Press Release at http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/releases/2013/J13-014.html

Kindly please remember that Risk Management is neither taking calculated risks in Wall Streets (or any stock market), nor managing “challenges” by insurance and reinsurance companies only. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management is, in all actuality, OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT PER SE to greatly exploit upsides and downsides before they happen.

Ergo, Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a proprietary methodology to practically solved complicated and complex problems by the targeted organization. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management or “...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” is, by far and by way of example, much more than Beyond-"...Sarbanes–Oxley Act..." Risk Management.

You see, “reinsurance” is a fancy term that equates to amount sums of “...insurance purchased by and for insurance companies...” If a tiny or gargantuan insurance company instituted Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, said insurance company would not need at all to buy any reinsurance “protection” or so-called “cover.”

6.- There are many leading government agencies and entities, NGOs, global corporations and supranationals that, since many years now, apply everything above in parallel (simultaneously, cohesively and congruently). This is, for instance, under universal application by agencies and business enterprises into Aerospace and Defense.

Institutions ─ that I have worked with that make forceful efforts towards avant-garde “scenario planing” and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management ─ encompass: Toyota, Mitsubishi, World Bank, Shell, Statoil, Total, Exxon, Mobil, PDVSA/Citgo, GE, GMAC, TNT Express, GTE, Amoco, BP, Abbot Laboratories, World Health Organization, Ernst Young Consulting, SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation), Pak Mail, Wilpro Energy Services, Phillips Petroleum Company, Dupont, Conoco, ENI (Italy’s petroleum state-owned firm), Chevron, and LDG Management (HCC Benefits).

7.- MANY PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS AND OTHER SCIENTISTS AND ENTREPRENEURS HAVE FORMIDABLE NOTIONS AND FORESIGHTED IDEAS BUT GRAVELY LACK THE DIRECT EXPERIENCE AND EMPIRIC YET PROVEN WOMB-TO-TOMB METHODS IN PRAGMATICALLY MANAGING A DANGEROUS CORPORATE THEATER OF OPERATIONS (FRAMEWORK).

To find out more about relentless Scenario-Planning Methodology and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, you are most welcome to consider the (republished by the Lifeboat Foundation and Forward Metrics) interview at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC .

REFERENCES:
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun
[2] http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/h/herman_kahn.html
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn

Regards,

Mr. Andres Agostini
Risk-Management Futurist
and Success Consultant


The Future of Omniscient Scenario-Planning Methodology, Today! By Mr. Andres Agostini

This is a personal yet summarized and copyrighted P.O.V. that is professional, thorough and complete. This independent exploration is based on 30 years of stern practical experience and expertise.

When I was 25 I was fully introduced and indoctrinated on worldwide Royal Dutch Shell's scenario-planning methodology by Shell's nationalized company Maraven. That introduction and indoctrination came through the kind deeds and executive decision of and by Maraven President, Dr. Carlos Castillo and the high-ranking strategic planners under his command.

The view and application of scenario-planning methodology by Maraven, as well as the several-weeks training to me, also included all theoretical and practical quality-assurance and continuous-improvement prescriptions by: Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Dr. Joseph Juran, Mr. Bill Conway, U.S. Navy, Kaisen and Hitachi.

With serious quality assurance and continuous improvement, one must exercise (like in scenario-planning contexts) great foresight and learning in advance in order to eliminate forthcoming "defects" or "flaws," leaving leeway to countermeasure unknonwables.

All of my Maraven training included all of the preceding. Maraven was a created and an acculturated full-scope petroleum company by Shell and then under the absolute tutelage and management control of state-owned PDVSA (Citgo's parent company).

Maraven was affluently thriving in worldwide markets while applying scenario-planning methodology as it was exactly conceived, designed and executed by Pierre Wack (an unconventional French oil executive who was the first to develop the use of scenario planning in the private sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the 1970s.)

Wack is the father of scenario planning in the private sector. For more details on this noted Guru, go to the Economist at http://www.economist.com/node/12000502 .

Wack's public writings are meager and kept under the intellectual ownership of Shell. Wack's methodological heir was Honorable Mr. Peter Schwartz, a previous Shell executive, the former Chairman of Global Business Network (www.gbn.com) and author of the groundbreaking book on scenario planning: "...The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World..." (ISBN-13: 978-1863160995).

Wack and Schwartz are the greatest proponents of 3-scenario analysis. In my case, I institute "...hazard scenario planning..." and the number of plausible and implausible outputted thought-through "outlooks" (scenarios) are only limited by the designated budget by the Client.

I am going to explain what "ouput" means in Systems Engineering. You have the Systems Transformational "Box," throughputting (marshaling) from "known inputs" into "desirable outputs" (from sustainable successful outcomes into fiscally sound and continuous growth).

BUT, FOR A LONG TIME UNTIL YEAR 1999, I HAD A REVOLVING QUESTION: WHERE DOES THE EXACT AND MOST UNDERLYING GENESIS OF SCENARIO PLANNING REALLY COME FROM? EXACTLY, WHAT IS THE OUTRIGHT ORIGIN? When I study contemporary authors I always wonder if I can find the actual "root" philosopher, scientist and thought leader that first and originally brought about an idea, notion, maxim, theory, approach or breakthrough.

For instance, former U.S. Secretary of State and conspicuous American self-help author Napoleon Hill got his first name and success tenets after and from (respectively) Napoleon Bonaparte. I research the works by the original ones first and then I might check out the works by the contemporary versions afterward.

COMING BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT MATTER, I finally founded out that scenario planning was developed by the U.S. during the 1950's and while great existential challenges were threatening the country's National Security doctrine as a direct result of the Cold War (1947–1991).

In consequence, I knew the exact and primordial, in-all-truth root and understood that DoD (1789 - present), DARPA (1958 - present), NASA (1958 - present) and Military-Industrial Complex (1961 - present) and other agencies and private contractors (including Skunkworks ones) were the founding fathers of advanced scenario-planning methodology.

Many scientists and engineers worked extremely hard at it, including NASA's Dr. Wernher von Braun[1] and the plethora of elitist scientists collaborating with him. Elites can sometimes serve the public interest at large handsomely. But the gravest inflection point came by the Sputnik Crisis (also known as the "Sputnik Moment," that is: a large Geo-strategic surprise). Many companies go under because of the strategic surprises inflicted by them either by smarter competitors or novel technologies.

From this point onward, one finds the salient research by RAND Corporation's polymath futurist Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983). To give you an idea on Kahn's intellectual mind-set style, please check these clear-eyed assertions by him: “...I'm against ignorance...I am against the whole cliché of the moment...I'm against fashionable thinking...I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking...” [2] .

Comparatively and interestingly enough, the United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld argued, "...Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know..."

But many years before the "... unknown unknowns..." conjecture by Rumsfeld, Khan was the ultimate pioneer in superseding "...the unthinkable..." This by Khan is one of the pillars of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management and The Future of Scientific Management, Today!

He did offer a theoretical body and practical and downright mode of approaching its theory. The most important global institutions of the world, into profit or not, are into stern "the unthinkable" discerning, beginning with those of us into advanced beyond-insurance risk management and strategy.

Let's explore Khan's background now. Wikipedia's citation [3] on "...the unthinkable..." polymath futurist is extremely educational. An excerpt of this citation indicates:

"...Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a founder of the Hudson Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally come to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove....Kahn's major contributions were the several strategies he developed during the Cold War to contemplate 'the unthinkable' – namely, nuclear warfare – by using applications of game theory. ...Most notably, KAHN IS OFTEN CITED AS THE FATHER OF SCENARIO PLANNING..."
CONCLUSIONS:

Given all of the prior, I understand and summon the following:

1.- Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence, government agencies and entities, NGOs, business enterprises and supranationals. Nonetheless, scenario planning as per Wack and Khan is breathtaking but in itself does not suffice in contemporary times.

2.- Along with item “1.-” before, there is also the concomitant application of 2.1.- Systems Theory, 2.2.- Game Theory, 2.3.- Wargaming Theory and 2.4.- Many other modes of practical strategic thinking and strategic execution. By example, Game Theory and Wargaming Theory ─ both under the Systems Thinking Approach ─ are extremely well addressed by Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, PhD.

You may wish to explored his book: “The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future” (ISBN-13: 978-0812979770).

To me Napoleon Bonaparte is the greeters Systems Thinker ever beyond any epic military campaign. If you are hesitant about it, please ask systems engineers, physicists, other scholars and managers, as well as prominent historians. 80% of the teaching by Bonaparte are taught in all U.S. Military Academies. In my case and as per my own experience, NASA-beloved Leonado Da Vinci's publications can be an over-learning device for the radiant prepared-mind crafting lucid scenarios irradiantly.

3.- With “1.-” and “2.-” in place, there is also the application of Compound Forecasting without the ruling out of the vast computing calculation and transformation from narrative data into numerical data.

I have many professional reasons to state that I use 70% of Qualitative Analytics and 30% of Quantitative Analytics. Algorithms don't outsmart the biological brain yet. By year 2000, before the Dawn of Strong Big Data, the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown and me were experimenting with seizing an optimal computerized reading pertaining to the “success-likelihood ratio” of a major business initiative to be jointly launched by our respective interests. This was another way of “futuring” that resulted exceedingly interesting and educational back then.

4.- In addition to all posited in “1.-”, “2.-” and “3.-” above, it is, too, highly advisable the concurrent implementation of other practical methodologies of and by 4.1.- Futures Studies and 4.2.- Foresight Research. There are several proprietary approaches that cannot be disclosed here.

5.- All numbered items above and in a rogue yet subtle search and recursive exploration of the totality of the whole (by holistic means), everything there must be seamlessly coalesced, integrated and instituted in accordance with Systems Thinking with the Systemic and Systematic Applied Omniscience Perspective as it is understood both by Applied Engineers and Physicists. Said “Omniscience” as it is chiefly understood by “Exact Science” Scientists.

All stakeholders always institute all the approaches hereby in order to avoid disruption potentials. One of the world's best and more authoritative examples is NASA and everything by it. For decades, NASA has been developing beyond-insurance risk management technologies and services for its own initiatives, projects and missions, as well as for august global corporations.

In the Summer of 2013, an American group of oil-and-gas corporations that operate globally asked NASA for a “...Space-Age Risk Management...” service to them as it was made official in a NASA own Press Release at http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/releases/2013/J13-014.html

Kindly please remember that Risk Management is neither taking calculated risks in Wall Streets (or any stock market), nor managing “challenges” by insurance and reinsurance companies only. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management is, in all actuality, OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT PER SE to greatly exploit upsides and downsides before they happen.

Ergo, Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is a proprietary methodology to practically solved complicated and complex problems by the targeted organization. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management or “...Transformative and Integrative Risk Management...” is, by far and by way of example, much more than Beyond-"...Sarbanes–Oxley Act..." Risk Management.

You see, “reinsurance” is a fancy term that equates to amount sums of “...insurance purchased by and for insurance companies...” If a tiny or gargantuan insurance company instituted Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, said insurance company would not need at all to buy any reinsurance “protection” or so-called “cover.”

6.- There are many leading government agencies and entities, NGOs, global corporations and supranationals that, since many years now, apply everything above in parallel (simultaneously, cohesively and congruently). This is, for instance, under universal application by agencies and business enterprises into Aerospace and Defense.

Institutions ─ that I have worked with that make forceful efforts towards avant-garde “scenario planing” and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management ─ encompass: Toyota, Mitsubishi, World Bank, Shell, Statoil, Total, Exxon, Mobil, PDVSA/Citgo, GE, GMAC, TNT Express, GTE, Amoco, BP, Abbot Laboratories, World Health Organization, Ernst Young Consulting, SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation), Pak Mail, Wilpro Energy Services, Phillips Petroleum Company, Dupont, Conoco, ENI (Italy’s petroleum state-owned firm), Chevron, and LDG Management (HCC Benefits).

7.- MANY PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS AND OTHER SCIENTISTS AND ENTREPRENEURS HAVE FORMIDABLE NOTIONS AND FORESIGHTED IDEAS BUT GRAVELY LACK THE DIRECT EXPERIENCE AND EMPIRIC YET PROVEN WOMB-TO-TOMB METHODS IN PRAGMATICALLY MANAGING A DANGEROUS CORPORATE THEATER OF OPERATIONS (FRAMEWORK).

To find out more about relentless Scenario-Planning Methodology and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, you are most welcome to consider the (republished by the Lifeboat Foundation and Forward Metrics) interview at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC .

REFERENCES:
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun
[2] http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/h/herman_kahn.html
[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn

Regards,
Mr. Andres Agostini
Risk-Management Futurist
and Success Consultant
http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC



(¯`*• Global Source and/or more resources at http://goo.gl/zvSV7 │ www.Future-Observatory.blogspot.com and on LinkeIn Group's "Becoming Aware of the Futures" at http://goo.gl/8qKBbK │ @SciCzar │ Point of Contact: www.linkedin.com/in/AndresAgostini