QUANTA

Friday, August 26, 2011








The Quadrennial Defense Review (2006 QDR) of the DoD describes four approaches an enemy can use to challenge the military capabilities of the United States. These include a traditional strategy (conventional warfare), an irregular strategy (insurgencies), a catastrophic strategy (mass-destruction terror attack), and a disruptive strategy (technological surprise, such as a cyberattack or an antisatellite attack). The 2006 QDR went on to describe the introduction of disruptive technologies by international competitors who develop and possess breakthrough technological capabilities. Such an act is intended to supplant U.S. advantages and marginalize U.S. military power, particularly in operational domains. Before the 2006 QDR, the DoD did not have a strategy to address disruptive warfare. Given the cycle time of research and development (R&D), strategy and concept of operations development, and the cycle time of defense procurement, the sponsor felt it would be most useful to develop a method for forecasting disruptive technologies that might emerge within 10 to 20 years.






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